DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1672-3872.2024.01.009
作者：宾炜华（湖南农业大学信息与智能科学技术学院，湖南 长沙 410000）
摘 要：【目的】了解玉米产量和各种影响因素之间更加深层的关系，精确地预测玉米产量。【方法】使用MATLAB软件，选用湖南省2000—2019年的玉米产量及其相关因素的数据，对玉米产量的影响指标进行灰色关联分析，将其按照灰色关联度大小进行排序。同时使用GM(1,1)灰色预测模型，对湖南省2020—2024年的玉米产量进行预测。【结果】对2000—2019年湖南省玉米产量影响最大的指标为玉米播种面积、农用化肥施用折纯量，其次是农业机械化动力、农用塑料薄膜使用量，这两个指标影响也较大。GM(1,1)模型预测结果表明，2020—2024年湖南省玉米产量逐渐增长。
关键词：灰色关联分析；灰色预测模型；产量预测
Analysis and Prediction of Influencing Factors of Maize Yield Based on Grey System Theory —Take Hunan Province as an Example
Bin Weihua (College of Information and Intelligent Science and Technology, Hunan Agricultural University, Hunan Changsha 410000)
Abstract: [Objective] Understand the deeper relationship between corn yield and various influencing factors to accurately predict corn yield. [Method] Using MATLAB software, the data of maize yield and its related factors in Hunan Province from 2000 to 2019 were selected to analyze the gray correlation of the influencing indexes of maize yield, and they were sorted according to the gray correlation degree. At the same time, the GM(1,1) grey prediction model was used to predict the maize yield in Hunan Province from 2020 to 2024. [Result] The most influential indicators on maize yield in Hunan Province from 2000 to 2019 are maize sown area, agricultural fertilizer application discounted net amount, followed by agricultural mechanization power and the amount of agricultural plastic film used, which also have a large impact. The prediction results of the GM(1,1) model indicate that the maize yield in Hunan Province will gradually increase from 2020 to 2024. Keywords: grey correlation analysis; grey prediction model; yield forecast
引文信息：[1]宾炜华.基于灰色系统理论的玉米产量影响因素分析及预测——以湖南省为例[J].南方农机，2024，55(1)：30-33.
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