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基于 CLUE-S模型的吴忠市土地利用时空演变及多情景模拟预测

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DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1672-3872.2024.02.006

基金项目:宁夏自然科学基金项目资助(2022AAC03316)

作  者:吕文清 ,马晓芳 (宁夏师范学院资源环境与生命科学学院,宁夏 固原 756000)

 

摘 要:【目的】研究不同情景下的未来土地利用时空演变格局,为合理利用土地资源、科学规划国土空间开发格局和区域高质量发展提供助力。【方法】研究团队以宁夏回族自治区吴忠市为研究对象,选取2000年、2010年和2020年3期土地利用数据,运用土地利用转移矩阵、CLUE-S模型,分析研究区2000—2020年土地利用变化特征,模拟自然增长情景、生态保护情景和经济增长情景下2030年吴忠市土地利用演变特征。【结果】1)2000—2020年吴忠市草地面积占比最大,其次是耕地和未利用地,建设用地面积不断增长;建设用地面积变化最快,并以耕地转化为建设用地为主。2)2030年建设用地面积在自然增长情景下将会减少,生态保护情景下林地面积增幅较大,经济增长情景下各土地利用类型变化较小。3)在3种情景下,吴忠市 2030年土地利用结构仍然以耕地、林地、草地为主,建设用地面积在生态保护情景和经济增长情景下将呈增长的趋势,在自然增长情景下将呈减少趋势。【结论】生态保护情景下的预测结果更符合国土空间规划要求和经济社会发展的需求。该研究成果对推动吴忠市未来土地利用格局规划具有重要意义。

关键词:吴忠市;土地利用;转移矩阵;CLUE-S模型;多情景预测

 

Spatiotemporal Evolution of Land Use and Multi-Scenario Simulation Prediction of Wuzhong City Based on CLUE-S Model

Lyu Wenqing, Ma Xiaofang (School of Resources, Environment and Life Sciences, Ningxia Normal University, Ningxia Guyuan 756000)

 

Abstract: [Objective] To study the future spatial and temporal evolution of land use under different scenarios, in order to provide assistance for the rational use of land resources, scientific planning of the spatial development pattern of the national territory and high-quality regional development. [Method] The research team took Wuzhong City, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region as the research object, selected the land use data of three periods of 2000, 2010 and 2020, and used the land use transfer matrix and CLUE-S model to analyze the characteristics of land use change in the study area from 2000 to 2020, and simulated the characteristics of land use evolution in Wuzhong City in 2030 under the scenario of natural growth, ecological protection and economic growth. [Result] 1) From 2000 to 2020, the area of grassland in Wuzhong City accounted for the largest proportion, followed by arable land and unused land, and the area of construction land continued to grow; the area of construction land changed the fastest and was dominated by the conversion of arable land into construction land. 2) In 2030, the construction land area will decrease under the natural growth scenario, the forest land area will increase significantly under the ecological protection scenario, and the changes in various land use types will be relatively small under the economic growth scenario. 3) Under the three scenarios, the land use structure of Wuzhong City in 2030 will still be dominated by arable land, forest land, and grassland, and the area of land for construction will show an increasing trend under the ecological protection scenario and the economic growth scenario, and will show a decreasing trend under the natural growth scenario. [Conclusion] The prediction results under the ecological protection scenario are more in line with the requirements of territorial spatial planning and the needs of economic and social development. This research achievement is of great significance for promoting the future land use pattern planning in Wuzhong City.

Keywords: Wuzhong City; land use; transfer matrix; CLUE-S model; multi-scenario prediction

 

引文信息:[1]吕文清,马晓芳.基于CLUE-S模型的吴忠市土地利用时空演变及多情景模拟预测[J].南方农机,2024,55(2):20-25.

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